What to expect from the next RBA cash-rate announcement — a plain English guide

 The RBA wants confidence that inflation is sustainably returning to target before it eases policy. If inflation and wages remain stubborn, the Bank will move more slowly.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets regularly to set the official cash rate — the central bank’s main tool to influence borrowing costs, inflation and the economy. For everyday Australians, the RBA’s cash-rate announcement ripples through mortgage rates, savings returns and the broader cost of living. With the next announcement only a day away, here’s a clear, readable rundown of how the RBA makes decisions, what commentators are looking at this time, whether a cut is likely, and a practical forecast for the next six months.

How the RBA’s decision process works (and when they meet)

Since a schedule change introduced in 2024, the RBA’s Monetary Policy Board meets eight times a year, roughly every six weeks. Each meeting runs over two days. The Board’s decision on the cash rate is announced at 2:30pm on the second day, followed by a press conference by the Governor at 3:30pm. The Bank also publishes supplementary material — the minutes, the Chart Pack and the Statement on Monetary Policy — on a regular timetable so markets and the public can see the data and reasoning behind decisions.

For context: the schedule of 2025 meetings shows the Board meeting on dates including 29–30 September 2025 (decision announced 30 September 2025), with the next meetings in November and December. (The RBA’s website posts the calendar and the “coming up” items well in advance.)

Where rates stand now — and what the RBA cares about

At present the official cash rate is 3.60%. The RBA looks at a range of evidence when deciding whether to change it — the most important are:

• Inflation (headline and core): is underlying inflation trending toward the Bank’s target? Recent monthly CPI updates have shown some upward momentum, which the RBA watches closely.

• Wages and labour market: wage growth and unemployment tell the Bank how much pricing pressure might emerge. A tight jobs market tends to keep the RBA cautious about cutting.

• Spending and business activity: household consumption and business investment shape the economy’s momentum.

• Global conditions and financial markets: global inflation, central bank moves offshore, and market expectations feed into the RBA’s risk assessment.

• Household balance sheets and credit: high household debt or a fragile housing market can influence how the RBA times easing or tightening.

  
  

Put simply: the RBA wants confidence that inflation is sustainably returning to target before it eases policy. If inflation and wages remain stubborn, the Bank will move more slowly.

What Will be the RBA cash-rate announcement this month?

Will the RBA be announcing a rate cut this month - short answer; very unlikely.

Most recent economist surveys and market polling ahead of the decision show near-unanimous expectations the RBA will hold at this meeting. The rationale is straightforward:

• The Bank has received fresher data recently showing that inflation remains a little stickier than some hoped. Monthly CPI surprises and resilient spending give the Bank reason to pause before loosening policy.

• The RBA has signalled it wants to see the next quarter’s inflation profile before making a decisive move toward cuts. In practice that means holding at this meeting and awaiting further data (including the full Q3 inflation read) before moving.

• Markets and major banks largely expect the first cut to come after this meeting — the timing varies by forecaster, but the consensus sits around November 2025 for the first 25 basis point (0.25%) reduction, rather than in the current meeting.

  
  

So, if you’re watching this month’s decision, the expectation is no change — but the statement and Governor’s press conference will be critical for hints about timing of future cuts.

What commentators and economists are watching (and why their views differ)

Economists and market strategists base forecasts on a mixture of hard data and judgement calls about the Bank’s tolerance for risk:

• Those calling for a November cut point to the cumulative easing already delivered earlier in the year, slowing momentum in some parts of the economy, and the RBA’s earlier communications signalling easing in coming months when the data allows. Big domestic banks such as Westpac and CBA have been cited by commentators as pencilling in a November cut.

• More cautious forecasters (including some bank economists) stress that recent upticks in inflation and a still-strong labour market increase the risk the RBA will delay cuts. NAB, for example, has in recent commentary pushed back the timing of further easing more than other banks.

• Markets price cuts based on probabilities that move with each data release — a hotter-than-expected CPI or stronger wages print pushes the expected timing later; softer data brings it forward.

  
  

In short: most forecasters expect cuts this cycle, but they disagree on when. The RBA’s next couple of public comments and the Q3 inflation data will be the tiebreakers.

Risks that could change the outlook

Things that could keep rates elevated or delay cuts:

• A surprise jump in underlying inflation.

• Faster-than-expected wage growth.

• Renewed strength in household spending or housing prices.

Things that could bring cuts forward:

• A clear cooling in inflation momentum across core measures.

• A weakening labour market (rising unemployment).

• A faster-than-expected slowdown in spending or investment.

  
  

Six-month rate outlook — a practical forecast

Based on the balance of recent economist polls, bank research notes and market pricing, the most likely path for the cash rate over the next six months (Oct 2025 – Mar/Apr 2026) is:

• September 30, 2025 meeting: Hold at 3.60% (expected).

• November 2025: First cut of 25bp to 3.35% — this is the consensus among many forecasters (including several major banks and Reuters polling).

• Late 2025 – early 2026: A further easing of up to 25bp sometime in the first quarter of 2026 is possible depending on how Q4 data evolves, bringing the cash rate toward 3.10%–3.35% by around March–April 2026 in the median forecasters’ path.

• Divergence risk: A minority of forecasters (or if the data surprises to the upside) may push out any additional cuts until mid-2026, keeping rates higher for longer.

  
  

Put simply: the market’s current consensus is one near-term cut (likely November), with a chance of a second cut by early 2026 — but the RBA remains data dependent and will change course if inflation or the labour market materially diverges from expectations.

What this means for borrowers and savers — practical takeaways

• If you’re on a variable mortgage, one cut would lower interest costs — but the precise impact depends on whether and how lenders pass on reductions.

• If you have fixed rate debt due to roll in the next six months, shop around now rather than waiting for an RBA move; the timing of cuts is uncertain and competition between lenders can change quickly.

• For savers, any easing may dent term deposit rates, so consider laddering or comparing products if you favour stability.

  
  

Don’t wait for the RBA

Monetary policy is unpredictable and the RBA is explicitly data-dependent. If you’re a homeowner or mortgage holder wondering whether you can find a better deal now, don’t wait for the RBA to act — let Etairos review your home loan options. We’ll check whether a refinance, switching product, or negotiating with your lender could reduce your repayments now — even before the Bank makes its next move. Contact Etairos for a no-obligation review and personalised guidance tailored to your situation.

Sources & references used

• Reserve Bank of Australia — “2025 Reserve Bank Board Meeting Dates” / Monetary Policy Decisions / Coming Up (RBA website).

• Reuters — “RBA to hold rates on September 30 but cut likely after Q3 inflation: Reuters poll” (26 September 2025).

• Major Australian banks’ and analysts’ public commentary summarized in recent coverage (CBA, Westpac, ANZ, NAB reports noted in market roundups).

• Aussie.com.au, News.com.au and other Australian finance news roundups and surveys on RBA expectations.

• Financial press analysis and polls (e.g., Finder surveys, media coverage of economist consensus).